War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Myanmar
The country's military is holding a staggered vote over the coming weeks.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Craig Clark
Craig Clark

A seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in sports statistics and risk assessment, specializing in European football markets.